Lately I’ve been working on a new way to scout each incoming NCAA prospect for the NBA draft using a similar method to TGR to determine the potential of each hopeful draftee. This method places each prospect into a tier graded A-F based on their potential future in the NBA; this method is not perfect nor 100% accurate, but it is pretty damn close. I went back and ran the numbers on the previous 4 draft classes and the tiers match up extremely well with how they’re performing in the NBA currently. There were, however, a few anomalies (Eric Bledsoe ranking as F tier), but none that were terribly shocking or surprising. That being said I would like to provide a more in-depth insight on how the tiers ranking system works:
A Tier- Tier with the highest chance at becoming a great player in the NBA. Each Rookie of the Year winner for the last 4 years has scored in the A Tier, along with every All-Star. If a projected late round pick is ranked in this tier he should be considered as a late round gem rather than a future superstar.
B+ Tier- Tier with a fairly high chance at becoming a great player in the NBA. Fair drop off from the A Tier to the B+ Tier.
B Tier- This tier can range from decent role players to good NBA starters.
B- Tier- Tier where you’ll find a good amount of solid rotation players and a below average chance at becoming a starter.
C+ Tier- From bench warmers to solid rotation players. If a player has a C+ ranking he also has a below average chance to become a starter.
C Tier- A player ranking in the C Tier should be considered to become an average NBA player. As with every tier, the potential to become an excellent NBA player is still there, just highly unlikely.
C- Tier- The C- Tier is extremely likely to produce a below average NBA player.
D Tier- If you see an early round projected player in this tier, their potential to be a bust is very high.
F Tier- Same rule applies from the D Tier. An extremely high chance at failing in the NBA.
Hopefully that gives you a better insight on how these tiers are meant to be analyzed, they are meant to be read with the players consensus draft projection in mind. Now let’s get tiering!
(Players not listed in any particular order.)
If you can come up with any prospects I may have overlooked or any that you would like me to rank, shoot me an email at Jordan.Clem@live.com