2014 NBA Prospect Tiers

Lately I’ve been working on a new way to scout each incoming NCAA prospect for the NBA draft using a similar method to TGR to determine the potential of each hopeful draftee. This method places each prospect into a tier graded A-F based on their potential future in the NBA; this method is not perfect nor 100% accurate, but it is pretty damn close. I went back and ran the numbers on the previous 4 draft classes and the tiers match up extremely well with how they’re performing in the NBA currently. There were, however, a few anomalies (Eric Bledsoe ranking as F tier), but none that were terribly shocking or surprising. That being said I would like to provide a more in-depth insight on how the tiers ranking system works:

A Tier- Tier with the highest chance at becoming a great player in the NBA. Each Rookie of the Year winner for the last 4 years has scored in the A Tier, along with every All-Star. If a projected late round pick is ranked in this tier he should be considered as a late round gem rather than a future superstar.

B+ Tier- Tier with a fairly high chance at becoming a great player in the NBA. Fair drop off from the A Tier to the B+ Tier.

B Tier- This tier can range from decent role players to good NBA starters.

B- Tier- Tier where you’ll find a good amount of solid rotation players and a below average chance at becoming a starter.

C+ Tier- From bench warmers to solid rotation players. If a player has a C+ ranking he also has a below average chance to become a starter.

C Tier- A player ranking in the C Tier should be considered to become an average NBA player. As with every tier, the potential to become an excellent NBA player is still there, just highly unlikely.

C- Tier- The C- Tier is extremely likely to produce a below average NBA player.

D Tier- If you see an early round projected player in this tier, their potential to be a bust is very high.

F Tier- Same rule applies from the D Tier. An extremely high chance at failing in the NBA.

Hopefully that gives you a better insight on how these tiers are meant to be analyzed, they are meant to be read with the players consensus draft projection in mind. Now let’s get tiering!

(Players not listed in any particular order.)

Joel Embiid
Jabari Parker
Marcus Smart
Kyle Anderson
Tyler Ennis
Elfrid Payton
DeAndre Kane
Russ Smith

Best case A Tier: John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, Michael Carter-Williams, Anthony Davis, Jared Sullinger, Kawhi Leonard, DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe

Worst case A Tier: Jon Leuer, Norris Cole, Tony Wroten, James Anderson

B+ Tier:
Doug McDermott
Aaron Gordon
Jordan Adams
Deonte Burton
Semaj Christon
Jarnell Stokes
Kendall Williams
K.J. McDaniels
Lamar Patterson
Roy Devyn Marble

Best case: Dion Waiters, Terrence Jones, Isaiah Thomas, Shelvin Mack, Tobias Harris, John Henson, Jordan Crawford

Worst case: Mike Scott, Erick Green, E’Twaun Moore, Craig Brackins

B Tier:
Julius Randle
T.J. Warren
Shabazz Napier

Best case: Nikola Vucevic, Khris Middleton, Kelly Olynyk, Gordon Hayward, Lance Stephenson

Worst case: Jeff Withey, Marshon Brooks, Glen Rice Jr.

B- Tier:
Andrew Wiggins
Gary Harris
Isaiah Austin
Markel Brown
Cleanthony Early
Dwight Powell
Nick Johnson
Jordan Clarkson
Sean Kilpatrick
Cory Jefferson
P.J. Hairston
Alec Brown

Best case: Tristan Thompson, Markieff Morris, Brandon Knight, Wes Johnson

Worst case: Justin Harper, Tony Mitchell

C+ Tier:
James Michael McAdoo
Johnny O’Bryant
Mitch McGary
A.J. Hammons

Best case: Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons, Bradley Beal, Steven Adams

Worst case: Keith Benson, Andre Roberson, Elliot Williams

C Tier:
Xavier Thames
LaQuinton Ross
Noah Vonleh
Keith Appling
Montrezl Harrell
Willie Cauley-Stein
C.J. Wilcox
Fuquan Edwin
Adreian Payne

Best case: Kyle Singler, Victor Oladipo, Mason Plumlee, Andre Drummond

Worst case: Allen Crabbe, Tyshawn Taylor, Colton Iverson

C- Tier:
C.J. Fair
Ovie Soko
Jerami Grant
Aaron Craft
Rodney Hood

Best case: Xavier Henry, Jordan Hamilton, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Worst case: Erik Murphy, Austin Rivers, Vernon Macklin, Kris Joseph

D Tier:
Jabari Brown
Andrew Harrison
Nik Stauskas
Zach LaVine
James Young
Glenn Robinson

Best case: Quincy Acy, Tony Snell, Cory Joseph, Avery Bradley

Worst case: Josh Selby, Fab Melo, Kim English, Josh Harrellson

F Tier:
Andre Dawkins

If you can come up with any prospects I may have overlooked or any that you would like me to rank, shoot me an email at Jordan.Clem@live.com